Crypto Price Analysis March 27: Binance Coin (BNB), DOGE ...

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, EOS, Bitcoin Cash, Binance Coin, Stellar, Cardano, Tron: Price Analysis, March 27

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Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, EOS, Bitcoin Cash, Binance Coin, Stellar, Cardano, Tron: Price Analysis, March 27

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BitcoinBCH.com accidentally publishes on-chain proof that they fake BCHs adoption metrics. Post to r/btc gets deleted and OP is now permanently banned.

Everybody who has posted this on btc has been banned according to modlog. Total of 9 users so far. Don't post this on btc or you will get banned. If you get banned comment on this thread or PM me.

May 2020:

According to btc modlogs, mc-78 has been banned because he questioned the April report with this comment.

According to btc modlogs, BCH4TW has been banned because he questioned the April report with this comment.

March 2020:

According to btc modlogs, bch4god has been banned because he questioned the February report with this comment.

According to btc modlogs, ISeeGregPeople has been banned because he linked to this thread in his comment.

February 2020:

According to btc modlogs, whene-is-satoshi has been banned because he linked to this thread in his comment.

January 2020:

According to btc modlogs, cryptokittykiller's post has been removed for linking to this thread.

According to btc modlogs, bashcalf has now been banned for linking to this thread.

According to btc modlogs, EnterLayer2 has now been banned for this post pointing out that this thread has reached 1000 upvotes.

This article was posted by bitcoinsatellite on btc here. Once it reached frontpage it got deleted and OP was banned from btc and bitcoincash as a result.

Disclaimer: I am not and have never been affiliated with any of the mentioned parties in a private or professional matter.
Presumably in an attempt to smear a local competitor, Hayden Otto inadvertently publishes irrefutable on-chain proof that he excluded non-BCH retail revenue to shape the "BCH #1 in Australia" narrative.
  • Scroll down to "Proof of exclusion" if you are tired of the drama recap.
  • Scroll down to "TLDR" if you want a summary.

Recap

In September 2019, BitcoinBCH.com started publishing so called monthly "reports" about crypto retail payments in Australia. They claimed that ~90% of Australia's crypto retail revenue is processed via their own HULA system and that ~92% of all crypto retail revenue happens in BCH.
They are aggregating two data sources to come up with this claim.
One is TravelByBit (TBB) who publishes their PoS transactions (BTC, LN, ETH, BNB, DASH, BCH) live on a ticker.
The other source is HULA, a newly introduced POS system (BCH only) and direct competitor to TBB run by BitcoinBCH.com - the same company who created the report. Despite being on-chain their transactions are private, not published and not verifiable by third parties outside BitcoinBCH.com
Two things stood out in the "reports", noted by multiple users (including vocal BCH proponents):
  • The non-BCH parts must have tx excluded and the report neglects to mention it (the total in their TBB analysis does not match what is reported on the TBB website.)
  • The BCH part has outliers included (e.g. BCH city conference in September with 35x the daily average)
The TBB website loads the historic tx data in the browser but hides transactions older than 7 days from being displayed, i.e. you can access more than 7 days worth of data if you understand JavaScript and can read the source code (source).

Hayden Otto's reaction

In direct response to me publishing these findings on btc, Hayden Otto - an employee at BitcoinBCH.com and the author of the report who also happens to be a moderator of /BitcoinCash - banned me immediately from said sub (source).
In subsequent discussion (which repeated for every monthly "report" which was flawed in the same ways as described above), Hayden responded using the same tactics:
"No data was removed"
"The guy is straight out lying. There is guaranteed no missing tx as the data was collected directly from the source." (source)
"Only data I considered non-retail was removed"
"I also had these data points and went through them to remove non-retail transactions, on both TravelbyBit and HULA." (source)
He admits to have removed non-BCH tx by "Game Ranger" because he considers them non-retail (source). He also implies they might be involved in money laundering and that TBB might fail their AML obligations in processing Game Ranger's transactions (source).
The report does not mention any data being excluded at all and he still fails to explain why several businesses that are clearly retail (e.g. restaurants, cafes, markets) had tx excluded (source).
"You are too late to prove I altered the data"
"[...] I recorded [the data] manually from https://travelbybit.com/stats/ over the month of September. The website only shows transactions from the last 7 days and then they disappear. No way for anyone to access stats beyond that." (source)
Fortunately you can, if you can read the website's source code. But you need to know a bit of JavaScript to verify it yourself, so not an ideal method to easily prove the claim of data exclusion to the public. But it laters turns out Hayden himself has found an easier way to achieve the same.
"The report can't be wrong because it has been audited."
In response to criticism about the flawed methodology in generating the September report, BitcoinBCH.com hired an accountant from a regional Bitcoin BCH startup to "audit" the October report. This is remarkable, because not only did their reported TBB totals still not match those from the TBB site - their result was mathematically impossible. How so? No subset of TBB transaction in that month sums up to the total they reported. So even if they excluded retail transactions at will, they still must have messed up the sum (source). Why didn't their auditor notice their mistake? She said she "conducted a review based on the TravelByBit data provided to her", i.e. the data acquisition and selection process was explicitly excluded from the audit (source).
"You are a 'pathetic liar', a 'desperate toll', an 'astroturf account' and 'a total dumb ass' and are 'pulling numbers out of your ass!'"
Since he has already banned me from the sub he moderates, he started to resort to ad hominems (source, source, source, source).

Proof of exclusion

I published raw data as extracted from the TBB site after each report for comparison. Hayden responded that I made those numbers up and that I was pulling numbers out of my ass.
Since he was under the impression that
"The website only shows transactions from the last 7 days and then they disappear. No way for anyone to access stats beyond that." (source)
he felt confident to claim that I would be
unable to provide a source for the [missing] data and/or prove that that data was not already included in the report. (source)
Luckily for us Hayden Otto seems to dislike his competitor TravelByBit so much that he attempted to reframe Bitcoin's RBF feature as a vulnerability specific to TBB PoS system (source).
While doublespending a merchant using the TBB PoS he wanted to prove that the merchant successfully registered the purchase as complete and thus exposed that the PoS sales history of TBB's merchants are available to the public (source), in his own words:
"You can literally access it from a public URL in the Web browser. There is no login or anything required, just type in the name of the merchant." (source)
As of yet it is unclear if this is intentional by TBB or if Hayden Ottos followed the rules of responsible disclosure before publishing this kind of data leak.
As it happens, those sale histories do not only include the merchant and time of purchases, they even include the address the funds were sent to (in case of on-chain payments).
This gives us an easy method to prove that the purchases from the TBB website missing in the reports belong to a specific retail business and actually happened - something that is impossible to prove for the alleged HULA txs.
In order to make it easier for you to verify it yourself, we'll focus on a single day in the dataset, September 17th, 2019 as an example:
  • Hayden Otto's report claims 20 tx and $713.00 in total for that day (source)
  • The TBB website listed 40 tx and a total of $1032.90 (daily summary)
  • Pick a merchant, e.g. "The Stand Desserts"
  • Use Hayden's "trick" to access that merchants public sale history at https://www.livingroomofsatoshi.com/merchanthistory/thestanddesserts, sort by date to find the 17th Sep 2019 and look for a transaction at 20:58 for $28. This proves that a purchase of said amount is associated with this specific retail business.
  • Paste the associated crypto on-chain address 17MrHiRcKzCyuKPtvtn7iZhAZxydX8raU9 in a blockchain explorer of your choice, e.g like this. This proves that a transfer of funds has actually happened.
I let software aggregate the TBB statistics with the public sale histories and you'll find at the bottom of this post a table with the on-chain addresses conveniently linked to blockchain explorers for our example date.
The total of all 40 tx is $1032.90 instead of the $713.00 reported by Hayden. 17 tx of those have a corresponding on-chain address and thus have undeniable proof of $758.10. Of the remaining 23, 22 are on Lightning and one had no merchant history available.
This is just for a single day, here is a comparison for the whole month.
Description Total
TBB Total $10,502
TBB wo. Game Ranger $5,407
TBB according to Hayden $3,737

What now?

The usual shills will respond in a predictive manner: The data must be fake even though its proof is on-chain, I would need to provide more data but HULA can be trusted without any proof, if you include outliers BCH comes out ahead, yada, yada.
But this is not important. I am not here to convince them and this post doesn't aim to.
The tx numbers we are talking about are less than 0.005% of Bitcoin's global volume. If you can increase adoption in your area by 100% by just buying 2 coffees more per day you get a rough idea about how irrelevant the numbers are in comparison.
What is relevant though and what this post aims to highlight is that BitcoinBCH.com and the media outlets around news.bitcoin.com flooding you with the BCH #1 narrative are playing dirty. They feel justified because they feel that Bitcoin/Core/Blockstream is playing dirty as well. I am not here to judge that but you as a reader of this sub should be aware that this is happening and that you are the target.
When BitcoinBCH.com excludes $1,000 Bitcoin tx because of high value but includes $15,000 BCH tx because they are made by "professionals", you should be sceptical.
When BitcoinBCH.com excludes game developers, travel businesses or craftsmen accepting Bitcoin because they don't have a physical store but include a lawyer practice accepting BCH, you should be sceptical.
When BitcoinBCH.com excludes restaurants, bars and supermarkets accepting Bitcoin and when pressed reiterate that they excluded non-retail businesses without ever explaning why a restaurant shouldn't be considered reatil, you should be sceptical.
When BitcoinBCH.com claims the reports have been audited but omit that the data acquisition was not part of the audit, you should be sceptical.
I expect that BitcoinBCH.com will stop removing transactions from TBB for their reports now that it has been shown that their exclusion can be provably uncovered. I also expect that HULA's BCH numbers will rise accordingly to maintain a similar difference.
Hayden Otto assumed that nobody could cross-check the TBB data. He was wrong. Nobody will be able to disprove his claims when HULA's BCH numbers rise as he continues to refuse their release. You should treat his claims accordingly.
As usual, do your own research and draw your own conclusion. Sorry for the long read.

TLDR

  • BitcoinBCH.com claimed no transactions were removed from the TBB dataset in their BCH #1 reports and that is impossible to prove the opposite.
  • Hayden Otto's reveals in a double spend attempt that a TBB merchant's sale history can be accessed publicly including the merchant's on-chain addresses.
  • (For example,) this table shows 40 tx listed on the TBB site on Sep 17th, including their on-chain addresses where applicable. The BitcoinBCH.com report lists only 20 tx for the same day.
  • (Most days and every months so far has had BTC transactions excluded.)
  • (For September, TBB lists $10,502 yet the report only claims $3,737.
No. Date Merchant Asset Address Amount Total
1 17 Sep 19 09:28 LTD Espresso Lightning Unable to find merchant history. 4.50 4.50
2 17 Sep 19 09:40 LTD Espresso Binance Coin Unable to find merchant history. 4.50 9.00
3 17 Sep 19 13:22 Josh's IGA Murray Bridge West Ether 0x40fd53aa...b6de43c531 4.60 13.60
4 17 Sep 19 13:23 Nom Nom Korean Eatery Lightning lnbc107727...zkcqvvgklf 16.00 29.60
5 17 Sep 19 13:24 Nom Nom Korean Eatery Lightning lnbc100994...mkspwddgqw 15.00 44.60
6 17 Sep 19 14:02 Nom Nom Korean Eatery Binance Coin bnb1w5mwu9...552thl4ru5 30.00 74.60
7 17 Sep 19 15:19 Dollars and Sense (Fortitude Valley) Lightning lnbc134780...93cpanyxfg 2.00 76.60
8 17 Sep 19 15:34 Steph's Cafe Binance Coin bnb124hcjy...ss3pz9y3r8 57.50 134.10
9 17 Sep 19 19:37 The Stand Desserts Binance Coin bnb13f58s9...qqc7fxln7s 18.00 152.10
10 17 Sep 19 19:59 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc575880...48cpl0z06q 8.50 160.60
11 17 Sep 19 20:00 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc575770...t8spzjflym 8.50 169.10
12 17 Sep 19 20:13 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc202980...lgqp5ha8f4 3.00 172.10
13 17 Sep 19 20:21 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc577010...decq7r4p05 8.50 180.60
14 17 Sep 19 20:24 Fat Dumpling Lightning lnbc217145...9dsqpjjr6g 32.10 212.70
15 17 Sep 19 20:31 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc574530...wvcpp3pcen 8.50 221.20
16 17 Sep 19 20:33 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc540660...rpqpzgk8z0 8.00 229.20
17 17 Sep 19 20:37 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc128468...r8cqq50p5c 19.00 248.20
18 17 Sep 19 20:39 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc135220...cngp2zq6q4 2.00 250.20
19 17 Sep 19 20:45 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc574570...atcqg738p8 8.50 258.70
20 17 Sep 19 20:51 Fat Dumpling Lightning lnbc414190...8hcpg79h9a 61.20 319.90
21 17 Sep 19 20:53 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc135350...krqqp3cz8z 2.00 321.90
22 17 Sep 19 20:58 The Stand Desserts Bitcoin 17MrHiRcKz...ZxydX8raU9 28.00 349.90
23 17 Sep 19 21:02 The Stand Desserts Bitcoin 1Hwy8hCBff...iEh5fBsCWK 10.00 359.90
24 17 Sep 19 21:03 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc743810...dvqqnuunjq 11.00 370.90
25 17 Sep 19 21:04 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc114952...2vqpclm87p 17.00 387.90
26 17 Sep 19 21:10 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc169160...lpqqqt574c 2.50 390.40
27 17 Sep 19 21:11 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc575150...40qq9yuqmy 8.50 398.90
28 17 Sep 19 21:13 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc947370...qjcp3unr33 14.00 412.90
29 17 Sep 19 21:15 The Stand Desserts Binance Coin bnb1tc2vva...xppes5t7d0 16.00 428.90
30 17 Sep 19 21:16 Giardinetto Binance Coin bnb1auyep2...w64p6a6dlk 350.00 778.90
31 17 Sep 19 21:25 The Stand Desserts BCH 3H2iJaKNXH...5sxPk3t2tV 7.00 785.90
32 17 Sep 19 21:39 The Stand Desserts Binance Coin bnb17r7x3e...avaxwumc58 8.00 793.90
33 17 Sep 19 21:47 The Stand Desserts BCH 32kuPYT1tc...uFQwgsA5ku 18.00 811.90
34 17 Sep 19 21:52 The Stand Desserts BCH 3ELPvxtCSy...4QzvfVJsNZ 36.00 847.90
35 17 Sep 19 21:56 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc677740...acsp04sjeg 10.00 857.90
36 17 Sep 19 22:04 The Stand Desserts BCH 38b4wHg9cg...9L2WXC2BSK 54.00 911.90
37 17 Sep 19 22:16 The Stand Desserts Binance Coin bnb14lylhs...x6wz7kjzp5 18.00 929.90
38 17 Sep 19 22:21 The Stand Desserts BCH 3L8SK3Hr7u...F3htdSPxfL 90.00 1019.90
39 17 Sep 19 22:30 The Stand Desserts Binance Coin bnb19w6tle...774uknv57t 5.00 1024.90
40 17 Sep 19 22:48 The Stand Desserts BCH 3Qag8c4UYg...9EYuWzGjhs 8.00 1032.90
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Cryptocurrency technical analysis: cryptocurrency assets began the rally

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: cryptocurrency assets began the rally

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: cryptocurrency assets began the rally
Top crypto assets have been in an uptrend this week. One of the reasons for the growth was the positive dynamics in the US stock market. This was facilitated by the decision of the US Federal Reserve to continue the asset repurchase program in current volumes until March 2021. In addition, a number of news has influenced the digital asset market. So, on July 25, Chief Justice of the District Court of the District of Columbia Beryl Howell recognized bitcoin as a form of money and stated that the asset falls under the money laundering law. This decision was made during the $311 million laundering case, where the head of the Coin Ninja crypto project Larry Dean Harmon is the defendant.
Also since the beginning of the week, Bitcoin futures trading volumes have shown impressive growth, and the regulated crypto exchange Bakkt has reported closing of record high trading sessions. Also, significant support for the growth of the first cryptocurrency was provided by the massive closing of short positions, which were liquidated on July 28 for more than $500 million. And on July 29 it became known that the Central Bank of the Philippines is now participating in the race to launch the first national cryptocurrency. For this, a special committee will be created that will study the issue of launching the CBDC and the legal norms necessary for its work.

Bitcoin

After a rebound from support at $9150, bitcoin quotes easily overcame the $9500 level, which now also acts as support. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) line passes in this area, as well as the boundaries of the technical analysis “Triangle” (they are marked in pink on the chart below). This allowed Bitcoin to reach the first goal in the form of cluster boundaries of $9,900- $10,000 and $10,400- $10,500.
Now the movement is taking place within the consolidation of $10,800- $11,300. In the coming weeks, maintaining the upward momentum will allow BTC quotes to rush to the following targets — $11,580 and $12,000. divergences ”between the highs on the chart and the MACD oscillator. If this scenario is realized, the targets will be the levels of $10,400 and $10,000. Further downward movement looks unlikely, but may lead to a retest of the $9,500- $9,600 area, where whales will most likely prefer to gain new positions in bitcoin.

BTC / USD chart, four-hour timeframe
On the daily chart of Bitcoin, you can see that there was a breakthrough of the boundaries of the technical analysis model “Triangle” (in the chart below they are marked in orange). From the point of view of technical analysis, a retest of the upper border of this figure should follow in the near future. This can lead to a decrease in the price from the current resistances of $11,000 and the cluster $11,200- $11,300 back to the supports at $10,500 and $10,000. If this scenario is implemented, there is also a chance of Bitcoin falling to the important cluster of $8900 (50% retracement at Fibonacci levels) — $9580.
The presence of divergence between the BTC price and the MACD oscillator indicates a high probability of a correction. But at what levels this reversal will occur is not yet known. But until the end of this year, the first cryptocurrency is ready to maintain its growth trend, which can lead to reaching $11,800, $12,500, a cluster of $13,100- $13,350 and $14,000.

BTC / USD chart, daily timeframe

Ethereum

Altcoins went up after bitcoin. The ether also shows good growth, the quotes of which continue to confidently rise from the support at $233, below which the 200-day SMA line is located. After overcoming the first target at $280, the ether rushed to the next targets located at the resistance levels of $300 and $320.
Now the ETH quotes have returned to the framework of the “Flag” graphical model, which can reduce the volatility of the asset. At the same time, a correctional decline below $320 will allow big capital to gain positions. The support levels will be $300, $280 and $251. The targets for the development of a long-term upward movement are $363.80, $400 and $420.

ETH / USD chart, daily timeframe

Litecoin

On the daily chart, Litecoin confidently maintains a positive momentum, which led to a breakout of the boundaries of the Descending Triangle technical analysis model. The upward breakout of the $47.45 level, just above which the 200-day moving average (MA) line is located, allowed LTC to go to the targets of $51.50 (38.2% correction level along the Fibonacci lines) and $56.80.
In the medium term, further upward movement may develop to $60.80, $65, $70 and even $83. However, in the event of a correction from the current levels, the whales are likely to gain positions only at the previously tested levels of $50 and $51.50.

LTC / USD chart, daily timeframe

Bitcoin Cash

Bitcoin Cash, as expected, soared from the borders of the “Triangle” price model (on the chart below the borders are marked with pink lines) to the resistance located at the upper border of the “Horizontal Channel” $200- $272. Then the altcoin continued its way to the $305 area.
A correction may develop towards the 200-day SMA line, which is located in the $272 area. But in the long run of the coming months, we can expect a breakout of the $305 level, which will allow Bitcoin Cash to go up to the $356- $368 cluster and further to $400.

BCH / USDT chart, daily timeframe

XRP

XRP also took advantage of an influx of liquidity, which led to the breakout of the boundaries of the Descending Triangle model. This allowed the asset to break through the boundaries of the “horizontal channel” of $0.18- $0.2050, in the area of which the 200-day MA line passes. As a result, XRP reached its first targets at $0.2360 and $0.2540.
In the long term, the bulls will be able to take profits at $0.27, $0.2860 and $0.3080. At the same time, the levels of $0.2040, $0.2360 and $0.2540 in the event of a correction can act as supports for the current XRP quotes.

XRP / USD chart, daily timeframe

Binance Coin

Binance Coin also did not fail to take advantage of the market situation to break through the resistance in the form of the upper boundary of the “Ascending Triangle” and the level of $18.14. This allowed us to start the long-awaited growth towards the first target in the form of a powerful $19.36– $20 cluster. Maintaining this momentum in the months ahead will lead to the achievement of targets at $21.30, $23.50, $25.80 and $28.20.
But before that, the asset may wait for a correction to the levels of $19.36 and $18, where the 200-day SMA line is located.

BNB / USDT chart, daily timeframe
At the end of this week, we can confidently say that another rally has begun among crypto assets. Moreover, it occurs before the start of the correctional decline on the world stock markets, which some investors warn about. Thus, the cryptocurrency market is becoming a new safe haven for whales, which have preferred to accumulate positions since March. We will not be surprised if this upward movement will last more than one month.
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EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month 28 Update (Down -82%)

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month 28 Update (Down -82%)
https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-28/
https://preview.redd.it/fadknmsjg5x41.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3a2de76c643f957d1b6f1b2f1b1ca09840988e9
See the full blog post with all the nerdy tables here.
tl;dr - Stellar dominates April, all coins in the green. BTC still way ahead overall, ETH reclaims a distant second place, and NEM (anyone remember NEM?) still in basement. 2018 Top Ten down -82% since Jan. 2018. When taken together, all three experiments (I repeated the experiment for 2019 and 2020) are basically even with S&P 500 since Jan 2018. More details that you probably care about below and stay safe out there.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on the 1st of January 2018. The result? The 2018 Top Ten portfolio ended the year down 85%, my $1000 worth only $150. I repeated the experiment on the 1st of January 2019 with the new 2019 Top Ten cryptos, then again in 2020. Think of the Top Ten Experiments as a lazy man’s Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, but hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole – or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018, 2019, and 2020 crypto space. I am trying to keep this project simple/accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I try not to take sides or analyze, but rather attempt to report in a detached manner letting the numbers speak for themselves. This experiment is designed to be documentary in nature, describing a specific period in cryptocurrency history.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 2018, 2019, and 2020. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

Month Twenty-Eight – Down 82%

Welcome back from the brink. While March saw the experiment enter full zombie apocalypse mode, the crypto market recovered bigly (or big league?) in April: every crypto finished in the green by at least double digit percentage gains.

Ranking and April Winners and Losers

Some ups, some downs, a good deal of movement. IOTA and NEM fell one position each down to #25 and #27 respectively. Although it seems like an eternity, remember these were the #7 and #8 ranked coins just a little over two years ago. On the upside, Cardano and Dash both climbed one position, while Stellar clawed back two spots, once again knocking on the door of the Top Ten at #11.
The overall drop out rate remains at the 50% mark (meaning half of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out). NEM, Dash, IOTA, Cardano, and Stellar have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tezos, Tether, and BSV.
April WinnersStellar dominated April, up an impressive +75%. Cardano finishes in second place, up +63% for the month.
April Losers – Every cryptocurrency finished April in positive territory, but NEM (+12%) and Bitcoin Cash (+15%) lagged behind the rest of the field.
For the overly competitive: below is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses in the first 28 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. Most monthly wins (7): Bitcoin. Most monthly losses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win and Bitcoin now stands alone as the only crypto that hasn’t lost a month (although it came close in January 2020), when it gained “only” +31%).

Overall update – BTC still way ahead, ETH reclaims second place, NEM reclaims last place.

Bitcoin made up a lot of ground this month, moving -50% since January 2018 last month to -33% at the end of April. BTC is still well ahead of the field. This may feel like a foregone conclusion at this point, but for context, long time 2018 Top Ten Experiment followers will note that this has not always been a given. Just a little over a year ago, for example, BTC was second place behind Stellar.
Same goes for the 2019 and the 2020 Top Ten Experiments: BTC is not always at the top.
Ethereum broke the tie with Litecoin for second place this month, down -70% since January 2018. A similar situation at the bottom: NEM (down -96%) is now alone in last place. That initial $100 investment in NEM? Now worth $4.46.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market added about $63B in April 2020, basically getting back to late February levels. It is now down -57% from January 2018.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance basically stayed put this month. For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been wide: a high of 70% BitDom in September 2019 and a low of 33% BitDom in February 2018.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:

The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio gained about $50 bucks in April 2020, back near where it was at the end of February. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $183, down -82% from January 2018.
Here’s the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month:
April 2020 is now the ninth consecutive time the portfolio has ended the month down at least -80%.
For comparison, the 2019 and 2020 Top Ten Experiments are solidly in positive territory:
Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $2,969‬.
That’s down about -1% for the combined portfolios. Definitely better than last month (aka the zombie apocalypse) where it was down -24%, but not yet back at January (+13%) or February (+6%) levels.

Comparison to S&P 500:

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. April 2020 saw a large rebound in the stock market. Although not quite back up to end of February levels, the S&P added over +14% back this month. It is now +6% since the start of 2018. The initial $1k investment into crypto would have gained about $60 had it been redirected to the S&P.
This is where it gets interesting. Taking the same drop-$1,000-per-year-on-January-1st approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments would yield the following:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$60
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$130
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$120
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,070.
That $3,070 is up about +2% since January 2018, compared to the $2,969 value (-1%) of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
That’s a only a 3% difference. Last month the gap was 13%.

Implications/Observations:

The 2018 Experiment’s focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos has never been a winning approach when compared to the overall market. The total market cap is down -57% from January 2018 compared to the -82% for the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I’d picked different cryptos – but better if I’d put all my eggs in NEM‘s -96% basket, for example. But at no point in this experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-eight months compared to the market overall.
In the other two experiments, it’s a slightly different story. There are a few examples of this approach outperforming the overall market in the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. For the most recent group, this approach has been 100% successful so far: each of the first four months of the 2020 Experiment show that focusing on the Top Ten beats the overall market.

Conclusion:

Although we’re not nearly out of the woods yet, countries and relaxing restrictions and markets, including the cryptosphere, are bouncing back. Will COVID-19 drive people to or from crypto? What happens if we get hit by a second wave of COVID-19. And how will the approaching Bitcoin halving effect markets in May?
Final word: second waves of COVID-19 are definitely possible. Please take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Keep up the social distancing, wear a mask, and wash your hands. Be careful out there.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Zombie Apocalypse Edition - I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (March 2020 Update)

Zombie Apocalypse Edition - I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (March 2020 Update)
2018 \"Index Fund\" EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies of 2018 - Mar 2020/Month Twenty-Seven Update - Down 87%
See the full blog post with all the tables here.
tl;dr - take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Keep up the social distancing, bend the curve, wash your hands. Be careful out there. And - a truly insane month. Despite the market meltdown, crypto has under-performed the market since January 2018 by quite a bit. But if you measure from Jan 2019 or Jan 2020 it's a different story.

Month Twenty-Seven – Down 87%

Welcome to the special COVID/Zombie Apocalypse version of the update. An all red month, but, meh, this is cypto, we’re used to it.

Ranking and March Winners and Losers

For such a crazy month, there wasn’t much movement with this group. For the second month in a row, Cardano fell two positions and Bitcoin Cash slipped one slot. NEM was the only crypto to climb, up one position in March. Always got to take the opportunity to report something positive about NEM!
The overall drop out rate is still at 50% mark (meaning half of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out). NEM, Dash, IOTA, Cardano, and Stellar have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tezos, Tether, and BSV.
March WinnersBitcoin squeaked out a victory in March, although BTC was basically in a three way tie this month with XRP and Dash. All were down -23%.
March Losers – In an all red month, ETH and Cardano did especially poorly, down -38% and -33% respectively.
Below is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses in the first 27 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. Most monthly wins (7): Bitcoin. Most monthly losses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win and Bitcoin now stands alone as the only crypto that hasn’t lost a month (although it came close in January 2020), when it gained “only” +31%).

Overall update – BTC far ahead, ETH and LTC virtually tied for second place, IOTA and NEM virtually tied for last place.

Although down -50% from January 2018, Bitcoin is still well ahead of the field. Ethereum and Litecoin are almost tied for second place, down -81% and -82% respectively.
While NEM technically remains in the basement, IOTA is knocking at the door. Both are down -96%, and IOTA is now only a few cents off in total return.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market lost about $60B in March 2020 and is now down -68% from January 2018.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance bounced up about +1.5% in March, something we’ve seen time and time again over the course of the experiment when the market bleeds. For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been quite wide: a high of 70% in September 2019 and a low of 33% in February 2018.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:

The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio lost about $53 bucks in March 2020. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $133, down -87% from January 2018. This isn’t quite the low point for the 2018 Top Ten (the portfolio was down -88% in January 2019) but pretty close.
See, here’s the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month:
A sea of red. The closest the 2018 Top Ten group has come to breaking even was after the very first month, when the portfolio was down “only” -20%. March 2020 is now the eighth consecutive time the portfolio has ended the month down at least -80%.
The 2019 and 2020 Top Ten Experiments are still in positive territory, but not by much:
Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $2,267‬.
After finally, at sweet long last, ending the first few months of 2020 in positive territory for the combined portfolios (January up +13% and February up +6%), that’s down about -24% total. Thanks coronavirus.
Alright, but it’s the end of the world as we know it, everything’s tanking. How does this compare to traditional markets?

Comparison to S&P 500:

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. March 2020 was not a great month for the S&P: it lost over -20% of its value this month and is currently at the lowest point since the experiment began in January 2018: -8% since the start of 2018. The initial $1k investment into crypto would have lost me about -$80 had it been redirected to the S&P.
Taking the same drop-$1,000-per-year-on-January-1st approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments would yield the following:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: -$80
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: -$10
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$230
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $2,680.
That’s down about -11% compared to -24% with the Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
That’s a 13% difference. Last month the gap was only 1%.

Implications/Observations:

The experiment’s focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos has never been a winning approach when compared to the overall market. The total market cap is down -68% from January 2018 compared to the -87% for the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I’d picked different cryptos.
At no point in this experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-seven months compared to the market overall.
There are a few examples of this approach outperforming the overall market in the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment, but these cases are few and far between. In contrast, each of the first three months of the 2020 Experiment show that focusing on the Top Ten beats the overall market.

Conclusion:

With COVID affecting the entire globe and no end in sight, the next few months will be tough. We should have a better idea whether crypto is seen as a gold-like safe haven during tough times, as some have suggested.
Final word: take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Keep up the social distancing, bend the curve, wash your hands. Be careful out there.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: bears drive the crypto market movement

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: bears drive the crypto market movement

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: bears drive the crypto market movement
The negative sentiment continues to reign in the crypto asset market, as indicated by technical and fundamental analyzes. Thus, the drop in demand for many top altcoins caused by the bitcoin correction has already led to the fact that the bears have reached many targets located in the support area. At the same time, several interesting events took place on the crypto market over the past working week. On July 15, it became known that the Chinese authorities will test the digital yuan on the largest supplier of groceries and food delivery Meituan Dianping. The work of the Chinese CBDC is already being tested by McDonald’s corporations, Starbucks and DiDi, the largest taxi aggregator in the Middle Kingdom. On June 16, Samsung announced the start of a partnership with Stellar, within which the developments of the blockchain project will be integrated into the Samsung Blockchain Keystore and Samsung Galaxy smartphones. Also, one cannot fail to note the large-scale hacking of the social network Twitter. On the night of July 15–16, unknown attackers gained access to 130 accounts of prominent businessmen, politicians and opinion leaders. As a result, fake Elon Musk, Changpen Zhao, Bill Gates and Barack Obama posted messages calling for bitcoins to be sent to them, which allowed them to collect 12.86 BTC.

Bitcoin

On the four-hour chart, bitcoin develops a very clear movement along the levels from the point of view of technical analysis. After retesting the resistance at $9500 and the lower boundary of the “Triangle” pattern, BTC quotes rushed down to the first target at $9150. If in the coming days the price consolidates below the support level, then in the short term we should expect the development of a downtrend. The closest targets for sellers will be $9000 and $8760 (38.2% correction at Fibonacci levels). At the same time, the persistence of negative sentiment in the stock market will be a signal for the digital currency market, which will continue to fall until the beginning of autumn and the recovery of the business cycle.
In the long term, this may lead to a decline to supports at $8330 and $8050. But in order to push the price lower, the bears will need to exert enormous forces. Moreover, from these levels, whales will begin to gain new positions, which will push the bitcoin price up and launch a medium-term growth trend. It will confirm its departure above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) line and the closing of Japanese candlesticks above $9500. In the long term, this will make it possible to achieve medium-term goals in the form of clusters of $9,900- $10,000 and $10,400- $10,500.

BTC / USD chart, four-hour timeframe

So far, the first cryptocurrency also cannot form a global trend, and this has led to the fact that Bitcoin continues to consolidate movement within the $8900 cluster (50% correction at Fibonacci levels) — $9580. BTC quotes have already dropped below the $9,300 level, which could lead to sales up to $8,900. In the future, we should expect Bitcoin to test the targets of $8600 and $8220, where the 200-day moving average (MA) line and the lower border of the technical analysis model “Triangle” (on the chart below, its borders are marked in orange).
For a short time, BTC quotes may even drop to supports at $7400 and $6800, but the forecast for the price rebound back up and the formation of a long-term upward trend seems more likely. This will allow Bitcoin to reach the $10,000 and $10,500 levels, and their subsequent breakout will allow the asset to rush to the $11,000, $11,200- $11,300 and $11,800 levels by the end of the year.

BTC / USD chart, daily timeframe

Ethereum

The altcoin market is also developing neutral dynamics so far, but more and more signals appear on the charts that speak in favor of the development of a downward movement.
Big capital is not yet ready to acquire digital assets at a price that has grown strongly since March.
Ether price develops along the $233 level (11.4% Fibonacci retracement line) and within the framework of consolidation within the $220- $251 range. The drop in the total demand for digital assets will lead to a decrease in the cost of ether towards the first target in the form of consolidation of $195- $200, where the 200-day MA line is located. The further course of trading will be determined by the appearance or absence of demand for cryptocurrencies. In the long term, by the end of the year, we should expect a move above $251 to the resistance areas of $280, $300 and $320.

ETH / USD chart, daily timeframe

Litecoin

On the daily chart, Litecoin continues to consolidate above the support boundaries in the form of a $40- $42 cluster, which takes the form of the Andrews Pitchfork technical analysis model. The development of the downward dynamics will lead to the fact that the cost of LTC will drop to $36 and $30.60. But in the medium term, we should expect the quotes to move above the 200-period MA line, which passes in the resistance area of $47.45. Overcoming it in the coming months will allow LTC quotes to soar to the levels of $51.50 (38.2% correctional level along the Fibonacci lines), $56.80, $60.80, $65 and $70.

LTC / USD chart, daily timeframe

Bitcoin Cash

The Bitcoin fork began to decline after the breakout and a very clear retest of the lower boundary of the technical analysis model “Triangle” (on the chart below, its boundaries are marked in pink). At the same time, the Bitcoin Cash quotes remain within the framework of a broader consolidation in the form of the “Horizontal Channel” $200- $272. However, the priority trading scenario remains a decline in Bitcoin Cash to the $200 level. There is also a high probability of updating the March lows in the $170 and $150 regions.
However, in the months ahead, expect BCH to move above $272, where the 200-day SMA line passes, paving the way to the $305, $356 and $400 levels.

BCH / USDT chart, daily timeframe

XRP

XRP is also under the influence of bears, leading to a decline towards the resistance level at $0.2050. In the coming weeks, the asset may test the support at $0.18, where the lower border of the Descending Triangle model lies. The development of the downward movement will allow XRP to test the support at $0.16 and $0.1470.
But in the medium term, a signal for a reversal of the downtrend may appear in the event of a break above the 200-day MA line passing at the level of $0.2360. If this happens, then in the second half of 2020 XRP will be able to reach important targets at the levels of $0.2540, $0.27, $0.2860 and $0.30.

XRP / USD chart, daily timeframe

Binance Coin

Binance Coin tried to break the bottom of the Ascending Triangle, but failed. The current quotes are supported by the 200-day SMA line and the boundaries of the $15.30- $16 area. Maintaining the downward momentum will allow BNB to rush down to the supports at $13.80 and $11.50.
But the most likely scenario looks like a final consolidation above the 200-day MA. This will open the way to the current resistances at $17 and $18.14, as well as the first target in the form of a $19.36- $20 cluster. Testing of the $21.30 and $23.50 levels is also expected in the coming months.

BNB / USDT chart, daily timeframe
Now more and more crypto assets are showing a willingness to succumb to bearish pressure, which will send quotes into a short decline that will last over the next few weeks. But by the end of the year, we should expect the activity of whales, which will begin to massively buy cryptocurrencies. This will undoubtedly send their value into a long-term upward rally.
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Zombie Apocalypse Edition - I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (March 2020 Update)

Zombie Apocalypse Edition - I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (March 2020 Update)

2019 \"Index Fund\" EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies of 2019 - Mar 2020/Month Fifteen Update - UP 6%
See the full blog post with all the tables here.
tl;dr - take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Keep up the social distancing, bend the curve, wash your hands. Be careful out there.
tl;dr II - Unlike the 2018 Top Ten, the 2019 Top Ten have over-performed the market since Jan 2019 by a seven point swing (2019 Top Ten +6%; S&P 500 since Jan 2019 -1%). Teaser for the next update I'll release on Reddit in a few days: the 2020 Top Ten have about a +30% swing over the S&P. Each 2019 Top Ten crypto lost ground in March. Overall, BSV has performed the best since Jan 2019, XLM the worst.

Month Fifteen – UP 6%

100% red this month, but the portfolio is still up about +6.5% since January 2019.

Ranking and March Winners and Losers

Not much movement in the rankings this month, despite the world ending. Bitcoin Cash and Tether switched places and Tron slipped one position to spot #16.
Stellar and Tron are still the only two cryptos to have dropped out of the 2019 Top Ten. They have been replaced by Binance Coin and Tezos.
March Winners – With all other cryptos falling, Tether wins the month. I’ll give BTC and XRP the distant second place trophy, both down -23% in March.
March LosersEthereum and EOS were the clear losers this month, down -38% and -36% respectively in March.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first fifteen months of the 2019 Top Ten Experiment: Tether is still in the lead with five monthly victories followed by BSV in second place with three. BSV also holds the most monthly losses, finishing last in five out of fifteen months.

Overall update – BSV barely in the lead over BTC, Stellar solidly in the basement.

BSV lost more ground to Bitcoin this month and now now holds a very slim lead, up +77% since January 2019 vs. second place BTC‘s +75%. Bitcoin Cash follows in third place, up +36% in the first fifteen months of the 2019 Top Ten Experiment. My initial $100 investment in BSV is now worth $179.
The strong returns we saw earlier in the year are evaporating: four out of ten from this group were up over the +100% mark in January, then two out of ten in February. At the end of March, that number is zero. That said, 60% of the 2019 Top Ten cryptos have either broke even or are solidly in the green.
Stellar is still solidly in the basement, down -64% after the first fifteen months. XRP is the second worst performer, down -51%.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market lost about $60B in March 2020 but is still up +46% since the 2019 Top Ten Experiment began in January 2019.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance gained bout +1.5% in March, something we’ve seen time and time again over the course of all three experiments when the market suffers. The range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2019 has been between 50%-70%.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2019:

The 2019 Top Ten Portfolio lost $408 in March. After the initial $1000 investment, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is worth $1,065, up about +6.5%.
Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the first fifteen months of the experiment, month by month:
As you can see, every month except the first month (January 2019) is green. At the lowest point, the 2019 Top Ten portfolio was down -9%, at the highest point, up +114% (May 2019).
How does the 2019 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $2,267‬.
That’s down about -24% (compared to about +5.6% last month).
How does this compare to the current global meltdown in traditional markets?

Comparison to S&P 500:

I’m glad you asked. I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 took another COVID-19 beating in March and is now down -1% since January 2019 (for reference, it was up +18% at the end of February).
The 2019 Top Ten portfolio is returning +6.5% over the same time period.
So, the initial $1k investment I put into crypto would now be worth $990 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 in January 2019.
But what if I took the same world’s-slowest-dollar-cost-averaging/$1,000-per-year-in-January approach with the S&P 500? It would yield the following:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: -$80
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: -$10
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$230
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $2,680.
That’s down about -11% compared to -24% with the Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
That’s a 13% difference. Last month the gap was only 1%.

Implications/Observations:

While the crypto market as a whole is up +46% since January 2019, the 2019 Top Ten cryptos have gained just +6%, a 40% gap.
This is just like the 2018 Top Ten portfolio as at no point in the first twenty-seven months of the Top Ten 2018 Experiment has the approach of focusing on the Top Ten cryptos outperformed the overall market. There are a few examples, however, of this approach outperforming the market in the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. And the first three months of 2020 Experiment updates show that focusing on the Top Ten is a winning strategy, at least at this point in the 2020 Top Ten portfolio

Conclusion:

The effects of COVID only look to increase in April. Besides the massive societal and personal toll, how will traditional markets react and will people consider crypto a safe haven?
Final word: take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Keep up the social distancing, bend the curve, wash your hands. Be careful out there.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the recently launched 2020 Top Ten Experiment.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (Nov. 2019 Update)

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (Nov. 2019 Update)
EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies of 2019 - Month Eleven - UP 10%
Full blog post with all the tables
**NOTE** - I'm on the fence whether or not to repeat the experiment yet again in 2020 with the new Top Ten. The problem is that there's not been a lot of movement, so not super interesting tracking the same coins at similar prices. I have some other ideas, but very open to suggestions: if you have any good ideas, please share them in the comments below. **END NOTE**
tl;dr - After a breather in October, crypto is back to the summer's downward trajectory. Every 2019 Top Ten crypto 2019 was down in November except of course Tether. Bitcoin Cash and Ripple both struggled in November, down -27% and -25% respectively. Overall, BTC and Litecoin are still far ahead of their peers, up +93% and +49% respectively in 2019, while Stellar continues to be a drag on the overall return of portfolio, down -50% in 2019.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. I then repeated the experiment on the 1st of January 2019. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2019 crypto space. I am trying to keep this project simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I try not to take sides or analyze, but rather report and document in a detached manner letting the numbers speak for themselves.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2019. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly. Compare loosely to the 2018 Top Ten Experiment.

Month Ten - Up 10%

November was the complete opposite of October: 100% of the Top Ten cryptos were in the green last month, 100% are in the red this month (except Tether of course, which is always flat). When Tether is the best performer, it signals a rough month for the 2019 Top Ten portfolio.
Overall, the 2019 Top Ten portfolio is up +10% on the year. For context, this same group of cryptos was up +114% at the peak in May 2019. Additionally, the portfolio has fallen well behind the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 (see below).

Ranking and November Winners and Losers

Not much movement this month. Bitcoin Cash slipped back into the #5 slot. EOS and Tether both advanced a position (to#7 and #4, respectively) and that's it.
Big picture, in the constantly shifting crypto landscape, it's a bit of surprise that nearly all of the coins that started in the Top Ten on January 1st, 2019 are still there (except Tron, which stands alone as a Top Ten dropout, replaced by Binance Coin). This is certainly different from the 2018 Top Ten Experiment where coins have fallen and fallen hard.
November Winners - Winner, singular: Tether. A distant second is Stellar, down -17% in November.
November Losers - Bitcoin Cash followed by Ripple, down -27% and -25% respectively.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first eleven months of this experiment: Tether has pulled ahead of Bitcoin and BTCSV. Bitcoin SV has the most monthly losses, finishing last in four out of the first eleven months of 2019.

Overall update – Bitcoin maintains sizable lead over second place Litecoin. All cryptos in positive territory except Stellar, Ripple, and Tron.

BTC and Litecoin are still far ahead of their peers, up +93% and +49% respectively in 2019. My initial $100 investment in Bitcoin is now worth $197.
All Top Ten cryptos are still either flat or in positive territory except Stellar, Ripple and Tron. Stellar continues to be a drag on the overall return of the 2019 Top Ten portfolio, down -50% in 2019. Ripple and Tron follow down about -40% and about -20% respectively.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The crypto market gave up its October gains and then some as $50B was shed in November. The overall market cap now back to the $198B mark, last seen in May 2019.
A bit of perspective: it still has been a very strong year for crypto overall. The entire market cap is up +56% since the beginning of 2019.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance decreased slightly in November. The range this year has gone from a high of 70% in September 2019 to a low of 50% in March 2019.

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2019:

If I cashed out the 2019 Top Ten portfolio today, my $1,000 initial investment would return $1,100, a +10% gain.
I'm down significantly in my 2018 Top Ten Experiment. If I cashed that group out today, the $1000 initial investment would return about $150, down nearly -85%.
Taken together, here's the bottom bottom line: after a $2000 investment in both the 2018 and the 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios would be worth $1,250.
That's down -37.5%.

Implications/Observations:

With the crypto market as a whole up +56% on the year, how have the 2019 Top Ten cryptos performed? Up a much lower +10%. As a reminder, in May 2019, the gains from the 2019 Top Ten and the entire market cap were both exactly the same: +114%. The last few months have seen that gap widen: for six straight months, focusing only on the Top Ten has been a losing strategy. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I'd picked a different group of cryptos.
This is reminiscent of last year as at no point in the Top Ten 2018 Experiment did the Top Ten strategy outperform the overall market.
I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is up +24% since the beginning of 2019. This is now more than double the +10% my 2019 Top Ten portfolio is returning. Quite a turnaround from May of this year, when the Top Ten portfolio was up +114% compared to +10% for the S&P.
So, the initial $1k investment I put into crypto would now be worth $1240 had it been redirected to the S&P 500.

Conclusion:

After a reprieve in October, crypto has resumed the slide it started in the summer. Until recently, it looked like the 2019 Top Ten would easily outperform the market on the year, but that outcome is definitely in doubt now. More telling, with only one month left in 2019, I'm no longer confident that the portfolio will at least break even: as of the end of November, the 2019 Top Ten portfolio only holds a slim +10% return, gains that can easily evaporate before the new year.
If you're just finding this experiment now, here's the backstory: On the 1st of January, 2018, I bought $100 each of the Top Ten cryptos at the time for a total investment of $1000 to see how they would perform over the year. I tracked the experiment and reported each month. The result? I ended 2018 down -85%, my $1000 worth only $150.
After last year's experiment ended, I decided to do two things:
  1. Extend the Top Ten 2018 Crypto project one more year. The experiment is now in its 23rd month. You can check out the latest update here.
  2. What you're reading now is the 11th report of a parallel project: this year I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019.
Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
Again: although I'm planning on continuing to track both the 2018 and 2019 Top Ten Cryptos next year, I'm undecided on whether or not to repeat the experiment yet again in 2020. Please do leave your suggestions and ideas in the comments below.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: neutral market dynamics before a powerful movement

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: neutral market dynamics before a powerful movement

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: neutral market dynamics before a powerful movement
This week, most stock market assets showed a neutral movement, which did not give investors clear signals about the need to take bull or bear positions. This trend was reflected in the cryptocurrency market. So, bitcoin continues to move below the key level of $10,000 and is unlikely to overcome it in the coming days. At the same time, it is worth noting a number of positive factors for the development of the price dynamics of crypto assets. Experts from one of the largest US banks, JPMorgan, presented a review according to which in March, bitcoin successfully passed its first stress test “mostly positive”. It also became known that the Binance crypto exchange launches quarterly BTC / USD futures contracts with leverage up to 125x, which will be available to users of the Binance Futures platform. This positive news can return to the market bulls that are waiting for signals for a successful entry.

Bitcoin

From the point of view of technical analysis, on a four-hour chart, BTC quotes are preparing for the development of a powerful movement. This is facilitated by going beyond the current consolidation between support at $9150 and resistance at $9500, in the area of which the line of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) runs. In the future, due to reduced liquidity, traders may begin to open bearish positions provided that bitcoin drops below $9150. In this scenario, BTC can go to targets at $8760 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and $8330.
A deeper decline is still unlikely, because in case of growth of capitalization of the stock market, part of the funds will be directed to the cryptocurrency market. But in the future months, we can expect quotes to go above the key level of $9500, which will allow Bitcoin to rush up to the target clusters of $9900– $10,000 and further to $10,400– $10,500.

https://preview.redd.it/zk56mog26h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=adf137775c35da072775c21acff5ccac26c73fbd
BTC / USD chart, daily timeframe.

Ethereum

Ethereum at the moment broke support at around $233, where the 11.4% Fibonacci retracement line runs, which allowed the altcoin to reach the important mark of $220. The next target for sellers will be the consolidation of $195– $200, below which is the line of the 200-day SMA. From this area, the ether will be ready to resume the upward movement to the first target of $251, overcoming of which will be a key condition for the continued development of the upward impulse. In this case, the goals for Ethereum will be the levels of $280, $300 and $320.

https://preview.redd.it/fd3at9986h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=2cb20e04b3cd82649cc762f48b6760ba38d59f7e
Chart ETH / USD, daily timeframe.

Litecoin

Litecoin confidently reached the goal in the form of the upper boundary of the cluster $40– $42. However, further growth attempts are hampered by the 200-day SMA line, which is located at around $45. A strong impulse to sell can send LTC quotes down to the levels of $36 and $30.60.
However, it should be borne in mind that these marks are excellent opportunities for a set of positions for the purchase in the long term. In this case, the first target will be the level of $47.45. By the end of the year, traders will potentially be able to take profits at $52 (38.2% correctional level on the Fibonacci lines), $56.80, $60.80, $65 and $70.

https://preview.redd.it/31jo7rmf6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf1d4fef4b8f68c97ba22bd84a56f392a030bd4f
LTC / USD chart, four hour timeframe.

Bitcoin cash

A bitcoin fork moves within the framework of the “Horizontal Channel” with borders of $200– $272. The asset is trying to gain a foothold above the level of $250 and the 200-day SMA line, which has become an important resistance for him. Going below $200 will cause BCH to drop to $170, and a break above $272 will provide an opportunity to take profits at $305, $356 and $400. Now trading Bitcoin Cash in the range of $200– $272 may bring more risk than profit, so the best strategy for conservative investors is to wait for going beyond this consolidation.

https://preview.redd.it/pjwco4ej6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a2742d0e16e368335b485c9d135c618bc271d6d
BCH / USDT chart, four hour timeframe.

XRP

XRP further reduced volatility and went down beyond the boundaries of consolidation of $0.2050– $0.2360, which allowed to reach the target of $0.18 in the moment. Closing the daily candle below this mark will allow the bears to send the asset to $0.16 and $0.1470. However, a breakthrough of the $0.2360 level and the 200-day SMA line will allow XRP quotes to rush further to the target levels of $0.2540, $0.27, $0.2860 and $0.30.

https://preview.redd.it/0qainjxl6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=057858229649d84b63611c8fdc78d67b8cb76f17
XRP / USD chart, daily timeframe.

Binance coin

Binance Coin quotes realized the forecast for the development of the downward movement in the region of the lower boundary of the region of $15.30– $16. But bears will need a lot of strength to overcome it, and if successful, they will be able to take profits at $13.80 and $11.50.
But in the long run, from these levels, the restoration of BNB quotes to the first
goals in the form of levels of $17 and $18.14 may begin. This scenario will be realized provided that an important mark of $16 is broken where the 200-day MA line passes. In the perspective of this year, whales may raise the value of the crypto asset of the Binance exchange to the goals of $19.36, $21.30 and $23.50.

https://preview.redd.it/l2devrqo6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cff5b3c4d87de03fdd3f27074df500ac761bbb3
BNB / USDT chart, daily timeframe.
Top cryptocurrencies have recently shown a neutral trend, but it will not last long. Indeed, usually this is followed by a powerful movement of the crypto market, so traders should “fasten their seat belts” and prepare for active trading in the coming months.
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Kava In the News

Kava "In The News" Media Tracker:
This is a thread to track noteworthy Kava mentions within the news!
This thread will not include "copy & paste" news - meaning, and article that was taken from somewhere else and republished.
(Kava does like when that happens, but this thread is meant to track original stories only!)

Featured Articles:


[News Mentions by month/quarter!]

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TokenClub Bi-Weekly Report — Issue 114(5.4–5.17)

TokenClub Bi-Weekly Report — Issue 114(5.4–5.17)

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Hello everyone, thank you for your continued interest and support. In the past two weeks, various tasks of TokenClub have been progressing steadily. The product development and community operation progress this week are as follows:
1. TokenClub Events
1)TokenClub & 499Block reached strategic cooperation in live broadcasting
On May 28th, TokenClub and 499Block reached a strategic cooperation to jointly build a live broadcast ecosystem in the vertical field of blockchain.
2)520e events
When 520 comes, TokenClub launches live interactive interaction. During the event, participate in interactive questions in the live broadcast room or forward the live poster to Twitter and the telegram group, and upload a screenshot to have the opportunity to extract 520, 1314 red envelope rewards

https://preview.redd.it/apyee28406251.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c9798db931ad6611d6c258907120610ae11ff11

3)Text version of live content is abailable on Medium
In order to better understand the live broadcast of TokenClub by overseas communities, we translated the live broadcast content into English and uploaded it to TokenClub’s Medium official account, so that the community’s small partners can view it.


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4)Preview: TokenClub’s self-media grandma is invited to participate in the golden financial theme live event
From May 29th to June 4th, Golden Finance will hold a five-day live broadcast of the theme of “Finding Double Coins”. Grandpa Coin will express his views on June 3, welcome to pay attention.

2.TokenClub Live
1) Summary
Recently, Binance Co-founder He Yi, TRON founder Sun Yuchen, Hobbit HBTC founder Ju Jianhua, OSL chairman Dave, BlockVC founding partner Xu Yingkai, Outlier Ventures founder amie Burke, Bitribe founder SKY, CryptoBriefing CEO Han Kao , Huarai Group / Vice President, Global Market and Business Leader Ciara, Guosheng Securities Blockchain Research Institute Sun Shuang, Tongtongtong Research Institute CEO Song Shuangjie, Jin Tiancheng Law Firm Senior Partner Yu Bingguang, Binance China Jiang Jinze, principal researcher of Blockchain Research Institute, Meng Yan, vice president of Digital Asset Research Institute, co-founder of Primitive Ventures & director of Coindesk advisory board-Dovey Wan, founding partner of Genesis Capital & co-founder of Kushen Wallet Ocean Liao Yangyang, Binance C2C-Kathy, Binance OTC-Coco, Binance Contract & Options-Justin, Binance VIP-Jennifer, Binance Broker-Jess, Binance Mining Pool-Denny, Harbin Institute of Technology Blockchain Research Executive Deputy Director Xu Zhifeng, dForce founder Yang Mindao, Mars Finance co-founder Shang Silin, Cobo & Yuchi co-founder Shenyu, well-known investor Xu Zhe, CasperLabs CEO Mrinal Manohar, CasperLabs co-founder Scott Walker, Chairman of Rock Tree Omer Ozden, Nova Club incubation team leader & Waterdrop Capital partner Zheng Yushan, Rolling Stone miner founder Alex Lam, BitUniverse coin founder Chen Yong, Odaily Planet Daily founder and CEO Mandy Wang Mengdie, Binance stablecoin BUSD project responsible Helen Tu and senior expert of TokenClub blockchain and cryptocurrency investment strategy-Zao Shen talks with you about blockchain things ~
On May 18, Block 101 Binance Key Account Manager Luna talked to Primitive Ventures co-founder, non-profit bitcoin development fund Hardcore Fund executive director, and Coindesk advisory board director-Dovey Wan, to understand “C and C How is the Goddess of Crypto Assets made? “Dovey Wan shared with us on asset allocation, investment judgment, entrepreneurship, DCEP, etc.


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On May 19, Block 101 Yingge talked with Sun Zeyu, the founding partner of Genesis Capital and co-founder of Kushen Wallet, to share the theme of “Blockchain Investment Experience”. This investor, who is rated as “reliable” by insiders, recommends that novices try not to touch contracts, do not stay overnight even when making contracts, be alert to risks, refuse gambling, and rationally analyze investments.

On May 20th, 499Block ’s two-year birthday carnival “Global Hot Chain, Keeping Together for Every Year” celebration was held in the TokenClub Live Room. The cross-border AMA Solitaire + popular day group anchor live video sharing, including Binance Co-founder He Yi, TRON founder Sun Yuchen, Hobbit HBTC founder Ju Jianhua, OSL chairman Dave, BlockVC founding partner Xu Yingkai, Outlier Ventures founder amie Burke, Bitribe founder SKY, CryptoBriefing CEO Han Kao, Huobi Group / Vice President Global Markets and Dozens of blockchain leaders from home and abroad, such as Ciara, the business leader, all appeared on the scene, and 499Block became a popular beauty angel group to help the interactive host.


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On May 20, Sun Shuang, senior researcher of Guosheng Securities Blockchain Research Institute, Song Shuangjie, Jin Tong, CEO of Tongzhengtong Research Institute were jointly invited by Lingang Xinyefang, Lingang Innovation Management School, and Binance China Blockchain Research Institute. Tian Bingguang Senior Partner Yu Bingguang, Binance China Blockchain Research Institute Chief Researcher Jiang Jinze, Vice President of Digital Assets Research Institute Meng Yan, and many experts talked about the “Critical Digital RMB DCEP” in the live broadcast, one A feast of intertwined thoughts is worth watching again!

On May 21st, Ocean Liao Yangyang, the founder of Block 101 Seven Seven Dialogue Force Field, focused on the “big enlightenment era of digital assets”, Ocean shared with us his entrepreneurial experience, the first pot of gold, public chain, currency circle and Analysis of the current market. Regarding the future of Bitcoin, Ocean feels that he can work hard towards the direction of digital gold and become a substitute or supplement for gold. He is determined to see more, because the ceiling of the entire industry is very high, and he still cannot see its end point. The index level is rising, far from being over.

On May 22, “In the name of the Pizza Festival, we came to a different live broadcast” Bringing Goods “”, which was organized by the girls in the 101-day group of the block: June 6, July 7, Sisi, Yingge, Qianjiangyue , Dialogue: Binance First Sister, Binance C2C-Kathy, Binance OTC-Coco, Binance Contract & Options-Justin, Binance VIP-Jennifer, Binance Broker-Jess, Binance Mining Pool-Denny. We have explained to us one by one about C2C, OTC, contract options, etc. If you are interested, please move to the live room.


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On May 22, Block 101 Sisi Dialogue Xu Zhifeng, executive deputy director of the Blockchain Research Center of Harbin Institute of Technology, shared the theme: “Strategy of Great Powers: Seizing New Highlands of Blockchain Technology”. He expressed his views on his own currency circle experience, entrepreneurship, blockchain technology, DECP, etc. Xu Zhifeng is very optimistic about the future development of blockchain. He said: “Ten years later, blockchain will become a very common industry. We are the Internet industry and have never changed.”

On May 23, the old Chinese doctor Zao Shen from the coin circle went online ~ The theme of this issue: If you want to be short, you must be able to sing first, and if you want to be long, you must be patient. If the meal is not fragrant, the game is not good, and the happiness of the past has drifted into the distance, just because the daily reading is still a loss, and the head is hurt. Don’t panic, the old Chinese doctor Zao Shen of the currency circle will adopt the Trinity Interventional Therapy and precise care to regenerate life. Don’t move quickly to the live room to see what “therapy” is.

On May 25, Block 101, July 7th conversation with dForce founder Yang Mindao, talked about “DeFi opportunities and challenges.” Yang Mindao believes that the four biggest benefits of DeFi are: programmability; non-custodial nature; non-licensing; composability. He believes that the current public chain market is seriously homogenized, and the most promising public chain is Ethereum. Ethereum is the best and largest in terms of developer group, ecology, and technological evolution, and can absorb the advantages of each public chain. At the same time, he is also extremely optimistic about DeFi, “DeFi application value is gradually verified, and the value of this type of token will gradually become more prominent.”

On May 26th, Mars Finance co-founder Shang Silin Hardcore Dialogue Cobo & Yuchi co-founder Shenyu and well-known investor Xu Zhe. The trend of “financialization” in the digital asset industry is becoming more and more obvious, and the friends of miners need to master more and more skills. Unveiling the mystery of hedging for everyone.

On May 26th, Nova Superstar Dialogue Phase 13 focused on the Silicon Valley star project CasperLabs, specially invited CasperLabs CEO Mrinal Manohar, CasperLabs co-founder Scott Walker, Rock Tree chairman Omer Ozden, and Nova Club incubation team leader Water Capital Partners Zheng Yushan, discuss CasperLbs together.
On May 26, Block 101 Sisi talked with the founder of the Rolling Stone Miner, Alex Lam, and took us into the “post-worker life” of a PhD in finance. Alex shared the reasons for entering the coin circle, the first pot of gold, mining, pitted pits, investment experience and opportunities in the digital currency industry. Alex said: Bitcoin exceeds US $ 100,000, and it will be in the second half of next year or the year after.
On May 27th, Block 101 Yingge talked with BitUniverse founder Chen Yong and shared the theme: “Who” needs grid trading. Chen Yong mainly introduced the currency trading tool of Bitcoin. In his view, grid trading has changed an investor’s concept-from stud into a batch of positions and positions. Regarding the price of Bitcoin, Chen Yong believes that the price of Bitcoin may reach one hundred thousand dollars around 2030.

On May 28, Block 101 Binance Mining Pool Wu Di talked to Mandai Wang Mengdie, founder of Planet Daily Odaily, to learn more about the process of “media entrepreneurs marching into the blockchain from venture capital circles”. Mandy believes that the core competence in the media industry is high-quality original content, which is the most basic but difficult to stick to. The initial focus of entering the mixed media industry of the dragon and dragon is to focus and amplify value.

On May 29th, Block 101 Qianjiangyue Dialogue Hellen Tu, the project leader of Binance Stablecoin BUSD project, talked with everyone about the stablecoin “Life and Death”, Hellen shared the stablecoin in detail, and published his own the opinion of. For details, please move to the live room.

On May 30th, Zaoshen came to share the theme: Dongfeng blowing, bullets flying, unlimited chase? In this issue, Zao Shen shared with you the recent international financial situation and various major events in the United States in the past week, which extended to the impact on the currency circle and answered various questions about investment strategies. Friends who want to know more details can move to the live room of Zao Shen.
3.TokenClub operation data
-Live data: 13 live broadcasts in the past two weeks, with over 800,000 views. TokenClub hosted a total of 870 live broadcasts with a total of 45.06 million views.
-Binary trade data: In the past two weeks, guess the rise and fall to participate in a total of 1268 times, the amount of participation exceeded 2 million TCT. At present, it is guessed that the rise and fall function has participated in a total of 1.11 million times, with a cumulative participation amount of 498 million TCT.
-Chat data: In the past two weeks, a total of 19271 messages have been generated. A total of 4.85 milliom messages have been launched since the function was launched.
-Mini-game data: The mini-game has participated in a total of 4212 times in the past two weeks. A total of 1,66 million self-functions have been online.
-Cut leeks game data together: Since the game was launched, the total number of user participation in the game was 962612 TCT total consumption was 6,27 million gift certificate total consumption was 15,95million and TCT mining output was 161496.
-TokenClub KOL data: Over the past two weeks, the total reading volume of the BTCGrandpa article has been viewed by more than 300,000 people.
-Social media data: At present, the number of Weibo official accounts is 18033 and the number of Twitter followers is 1332 and we have opened the official Medium account this week, welcome to follow.
-Telegram official group data: In the past 2 weeks, there were 238 chats in the group, and the total number of Telegram official groups is currently 2906.
-Medium data: Medium official account u/TokenClub has published 5 excellent articles, official announcements and updates are published in English, welcome to follow.
4.Communities
1)Overseas Community
TokenClub held an event for forwarding Twitter and telegram group chats for overseas users. Bitcoin halved in less than two weeks, overseas users are more active in the telegram group, and some friends are more concerned about Binance Block 101 live broadcast, aggregation exchange, TCT usage and other issues, the administrator responded in time.On May 12th, when Bitcoin was halved, TokenClub organized a forwarding Twitter, telegram group chat prize event and participating in a live question asking interactive prize event for overseas users. There are many live broadcast events in the near future. The live broadcast poster information will be released to overseas users as soon as possible. The follow-up TokenClub will translate and broadcast high-quality live broadcast content to Twitter and Medium. Bitcoin halved, overseas users are more active in the telegram group, and some partners are more concerned about block 101 live broadcast, bitcoin future price trend, TCT usage and other issues, the administrator responded in time in the group.


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2)Domestic community
Sweet Orange Club Weekly News
Last Friday, a holiday, the community opened the red envelope rain event, and brought a sincere gift to everyone while relaxing in the holiday. At the same time, it also sent the most sincere blessings to all mothers in the community on Mother’s Day. Thank you for your long-term support and help to the Orange Club community.

Hundred-day scheduled investment event (Phase II)
The fourth week of the second 100-day fixed investment plan held this week has been awarded, and everyone is still very active in this event. This week, the Bitcoin halving market was also opened in advance. The small partners participating in the fixed investment should now have a certain floating win, so we adopt the correct cycle investment strategy to believe that it can bring unexpected benefits to everyone.
Sign in the lottery.
On the evening of May 3rd and May 10th, TCT Fortune Free Academy carried out the 51st and 52nd week sign-in sweepstakes, and rewarded the small TCT partners who had always insisted on signing in. In these two sign-in sweepstakes, the lucky friends received 20–180TCT as a reward. In addition, during the lucky draw, the college friends also actively expressed their opinions on the topic of this year’s bull market.

The Leek Paradise Community Conference will continue as usual every Sunday at 20:00. During the conference, members will discuss recent hot topics, including gifts and blessings for Mother ’s Day, and the halving of Bitcoin everyone is paying attention to. At the end, the friends in the group also showed a rare enthusiasm at the first sight. It seems that the market still affects the mood. The members routinely started a red envelope rain to cheer for the participating partners and encourage everyone to maintain patience and confidence. Of course, at the same time, we are encouraging ourselves to see the community meeting next week. Come on!

TokenClub volunteer community, sign in red envelopes every day, as long as you sign in every day, you can get good benefits, friends join us quickly! In the past two weeks, the community has conducted active partners.
Volunteer community: Change to the currency circle consultation and pass the analysis of Grandma Coin and Panda analysts, support TokenClub in action, and continue to vote for TCT. In the last month, we have worked hard to learn the rain god’s strategy. We have doubled the coins in our hands. The community WeChat group has recently injected fresh students. We look forward to more people joining! Volunteer community, will continue to work hard for TokenClub
TCT has been listed on Binance、Okex、Gate.io、ZB-M、MXC、Biki、Coinex、BigOne、Coinbene、Cybex、SWFT、Loopring、Rootrex etc.
TokenClub website: www.tokenclub.com
Telegram:https://t.me/token\_club
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I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Feb 2020 Update)

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Feb 2020 Update)

2018 \"Index Fund\" EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies of 2018 - Feb 2020/Month Twenty-Six Update - Down 81%
Note: the snapshot was taken on the 1st of March, so does not include the current COVID craziness. Stay tuned for next month's updates to see the result of the current crypto nose dive and how it compares to the current stock market nose dive.
Stay safe, wash your hands, take care of each other.
See the full blog post with all the tables here.

Month Twenty-Six – Down 81%

After a strong start to 2020, February saw a bit of a pullback with nearly every 2018 Top Ten crypto ending in the red. Ethereum is the notable exception, gaining +21% for the month.

Ranking and February Winners and Losers

A mixed month in terms of movement for this group of cryptos. NEM and Stellar made positive moves while Cardano and IOTA, fell two and four positions, respectively. Dash gave up some of the ground it made in January when it jumped an unprecedented 10 slots, but this month it fell from #16 back to #20.
For overall drop out rate, we’re back at the 50% mark: half of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out, specifically NEM, Dash, IOTA, Cardano, and Stellar. They have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tezos, Tether, and BSV.
February WinnersEthereum easily outperformed the field this month with a +21% gain. NEM finished in second place, up +4%.
February Losers – All the other cryptos ended the month in the red. IOTA picks up the L this month, losing -28% of its value followed closely by Dash which finished down -27%.
For nerds): here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses in the first 26 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. Most monthly wins (6): Bitcoin. Most monthly losses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win and Bitcoin now stands alone as the only crypto that hasn’t lost a month (although it came close in January 2020), when it gained “only” +31%).

Overall update – BTC far ahead, ETH takes second place from LTC, IOTA and NEM worst performing

No news here: Bitcoin is still well ahead of the field. Although down -35% since the beginning of 2018, BTC is still returning roughly double of the next crypto down, Ethereum – which, thanks to a strong February, has overtaken Litecoin for second place.
While NEM remains at the bottom, IOTA is dropping quickly. They are down -95% and -94% respectively.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market lost about $12B in February 2020, a non-event in the crypto world. Since January 2018, the total market cap is down about -57%.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance ticked down another two points to 64% in February 2020. The last time BitDom was this low was back in July 2019. The range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been quite wide: a high of 70% in September 2019 and a low of 33% in February 2018.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:

The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio lost about $16 bucks in February 2020. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $186, down -81% from January 2018.
Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month:
As you can see, nothing but red. The closest the 2018 Top Ten group has come to breaking even was after the very first month, when the portfolio was down -20%. It has been at the at least -80% loss level for the past seven months in a row.
The 2019 Top Ten Experiment and the just launched 2020 Top Ten Experiment are both doing much better:
Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $‭3,170‬.
That’s up about +5.6%.

Implications/Observations:

As always, the experiment’s focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos continues to be a losing approach. While the overall market is down -57% from January 2018, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -81% over the same period. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I’d picked different cryptos.
At no point in this experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-six months compared to the market overall.
There are a few examples, however, of this approach outperforming the overall market in the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. And the first two months of the 2020 Experiment show that focusing on the Top Ten is a winning strategy.
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. After a rough coronavirus fueled week, the S&P 500 has lost a lot of ground. It is currently up only +11% since the beginning of 2018. The initial $1k investment into crypto would have yielded about +$110 had it been redirected to the S&P.
Taking the same drop-$1,000-per-year-on-January-1st approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments would yield the following:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$110
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$180
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$90
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,200.
That’s up about +6.7% compared to +5.6% with the Top Ten Crypto Experiments.
That’s getting pretty close now, eh? While this month’s update/snapshot is greatly influenced by the coronavirus stock market correction, a difference of only 1% is definitely worth noting.

Conclusion:

Not a great month for crypto, but not a horrible one, especially if you compare to the free fall in the stock market. Depending on how the coronavirus influences both traditional and crypto markets, we could be in for an interesting few months.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

HUOBI – THE EXCHANGE BUILT FOR THE FUTURE - A HONEST REVIEW BY AN USER

HUOBI – THE EXCHANGE BUILT FOR THE FUTURE - A HONEST REVIEW BY AN USER
HUOBI – THE EXCHANGE BUILT FOR THE FUTURE
A HONEST REVIEW BY AN USER
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Leon Li founded Huobi in 2013, a former computer engineer at Oracle. Huobi Global is a digital asset and crypto currency exchange headquartered in Singapore. Huobi also has local exchanges in South Korea, Japan, and through its strategic partner, the United States.
The Huobi Group, the parent company of Huobi Global, has received venture capital finance from prominent Beijing based ZhenFund and American VC firm Sequoia Capital.
The Huobi Global exchange serves traders in 130 countries. Through Huobi Global, traders can access almost 200 crypto and stable coin assets. Huobi users can download trading clients on both mobile and desktop devices.
Huobi has traded over US$1.2 trillion in digital assets, and at one time it was the world’s leading exchange by volume, capturing 50% of all global trading volume.
In terms of security, Huobi has adopted a decentralized exchange structure, which helps to resist DDOS attacks. However, Huobi has implemented the ‘Huobi Security Reserve, in which Huobi has set aside 20,000 BTC reserved for users who have lost funds either due to hacks, or exchange failures.
Ease of use
The UI is clean, user-friendly and perfectly designed with all the basic requirements for a crypto-trader. The charting software is provided by Tradingview, which is exactly what you want.
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Huobi OTC
Huobi’s OTC exchange is a good initiative. The Huobi OTC exchange allows users to trade funds peer-to-peer which doesn’t affect the market price of the underlying asset. The OTC trading-desk, with transfer options like bank-transfers, PayPal, WU, Paytm, UPI, IMPS, Alipay & many others, is an easy to use payment gateway. With a secure exchange to diversify your investment, right next door, too with effective list of Buy and Sell options for BTC, ETH, USDT and EOS coins.
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Huobi Lite
Huobi Lite App provides a convenient channel for everyone to buy cryptocurrencies at the best prices. Tailor-made for beginners, traders, and users.
We can download the App directly from the respective iOS Store or Google Play Store. Alternatively, we may access via the link: https://lite.huobi.com/download
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On Huobi Lite, you can buy Bitcoin with your local currencies, credit card, or exchange cryptocurrencies tokens, with zero fees at competitive prices. Huobi Lite currently supports MYR / HKD / VND / USD (Credit Card deposit only), with more to come in the future.
Huobi Derivative Market (Huobi DM)
Margin Trading
Huobi Global launched Huobi Derivative Market (Huobi DM) exchange to selected countries. It provides margin trading, with very low daily loan interest rates of 0.1%. Margin Trading allows users to increase their investment exposure given a limited base principal to enjoy multiple returns.
3-Steps taken in Margin Trading:
  1. Request for Loan
  2. Trade on Margin (Long/Short)
  3. Repay Margin Loan and Interest
With the introduction of Cross Margin on Huobi, users will have to explicitly input the respective margin type before executing the above 3 steps. Balances on the Cross Margin balance does not show on the Isolated Margin balance.
Huobi Futures
Huobi Futures is a kind of digital currency derivatives. Users can make a profit from the rising/falling of digital currencies prices by going long or selling short based on their own judgment.
The Huobi Futures Contract adopts spread delivery. When the contract expires, all open positions will be closed at the index-based last-hour arithmetic average price, instead of physical delivery.
BTC/ETH/EOS/LTC/XRP/BCH/TRX/BSV/ETC Contracts are available on Huobi DM. Contracts are priced in USD, with corresponding digital currency (BTC/ETH/EOS/LTC/XRP/BCH/TRX respectively) as margin to open positions, and PnL is also settled in corresponding digital currency.
Weekly, bi-weekly and quarterly contracts are available in Huobi DM. Weekly contracts will be settled on imminent Friday; Bi-weekly contracts will be settled on next Friday; Quarterly contracts will be settled on the last Friday of March, June, September and December.
Choices of leverage: 1x, 5x, 10x, 20x
Huobi Perpetual Swap
Huobi introduced Perpetual Swaps on March 27, 2020 (GMT+8). Huobi Perpetual swap is a kind of digital currency derivatives. Users can make a profit from the rising/falling of digital currencies prices by going long or selling short based on their own judgment. Similar to a margin spot market, its price is close to the price of the underlying reference index. The main mechanism for anchoring spot prices is the cost of funds. Perpetual swap have no delivery date. Users can always hold it. Perpetual swap are settled every 8 hours. After each settlement, the realized profit/loss and unrealized profits/losses are transferred to the user account balance.
Partial Liquidation
Huobi Futures adopted partial liquidation to help position holders reduce liquidation risk. Users with large positions and high leverage bear high risk. Huobi Futures releases partial liquidation with the aim to lower possible losses due to high price volatility thus giving users better trading experience.
Under partial liquidation mechanism, when liquidation is triggered, instead of liquidating all positions at once, the system reduces positions gradually till a grade whose margin ratio is great than 0. Full liquidation will only occur when the margin ratio of tier 1 upper limit net position still fails to be great than 0.
Trading Fees
The Huobi exchange has a fair trading fee structure. Every asset traded via Huobi Global is subject to a 0.2% trade fee, for both market makers and takers. Further, Huobi Global has introduced a tiered fee system which offers competitively lower fees for high volume traders. VIP membership gives access to various fee reductions and other benefits.
Huobi Prime
Huobi Prime, the Launchpad platform which we can call Direct Premium Offering (DPO), does share some similarities with initial exchange offerings (IEO) like Binance Launchpad, but it is unique as it is not a fundraising platform, and any coins purchased on the platform are immediately deposited into the users’ wallets and tradable on Huobi Global. Huobi Prime offers its users early access to the coins of premium projects, which can be bought using its native crypto currency, the Huobi Token. To avoid dumping, Huobi has implemented an innovative idea of a period of tiered price limits.
Huobi FastTrack
Huobit FastTrack, rebranded from Huobi Prime Lite, is a new listing model. Wherein, all participants will have a direct say in what projects are listed on Huobi Global and when. In addition, winning voters will get access to quality tokens at below market rates. The program also provides much needed exposure and a straightforward listing process.
Huobi Wallet
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Huobi Wallet is the official mobile wallet of Huobi Group, a leading global digital asset financial service provider. It is a multi-chain asset management tool that provides native support for various types of blockchains and all of the ERC20 tokens. So far Huobi Wallet supports BTC, BCH, LTC, ETH, ETC, USDT and all ERC20 tokens.
Huobi wallet is the first wallet to expand support to cover seven stablecoins including, Paxos Standard Token (PAX), TrueUSD (TUSD), USD Coin (USDC), Gemini Dollar (GUSD), Dai (DAI), Stasis EURS (EURS), and Tether (USDT).
Huobi Wallet is built based on the core principle of security-first. The wallet gives back its users, complete control of their private keys. In simple terms, You own your assets. The wallet is backed up with mnemonics, so in future when you want to import your wallet, it’s just simple few clicks.
Currently, the wallet is compatible with both iOS and Android devices and you can download both from here (www.huobiwallet.com/en)
Huobi Chain
Huobi launched Huobi Chain’s Testnet (“the Testnet”) on February 29th 2020 (GMT+8). Huobi Chain is China’s autonomous cum compliant-ready blockchain platform, and is committed to providing a global, blockchain-based, digital asset infrastructure. Huobi Chain is committed to providing a high-performance, blockchain-based, global digital asset infrastructure. Once the Mainnet goes live, Huobi Chain will announce HT- related events: e.g. pledge HT to be a Super Node, etc.
HT Lock & Mine (Huobi Pool)
Huobi launched HT Lock and Mine operations on 25th July 2019 (GMT+8). Users who lock HT tokens receive daily HPT rewards. Specific reward quantity will depend on lock option period selected, quantity locked and Huobi Pool’ s mining hash power and daily float.
DPOS Rewards: All Huobi Global users with more than 1,000HPT holdings in their HBG account will receive DPOS mining rewards. Currently, token reward received under DPOS mining include EOS, TRX, CMT, ONG, IOST, ATOM, IRIS, LAMB。
Huobi Support
Users of the Huobi exchange can access 24/7 live chat and Huobi help center. Those facing issues can also open a support ticket to have their issue resolved by an expert representative immediately.
The Huobi Group has a very active YouTube channel, featuring Huobi Talk, where it posts user tutorials, detailed guides, and crypto currency information for traders.
What I like the most about Huobi
  1. An established platform that’s been operating since 2013, which is a long time in the crypto world.
  2. Highly secured with decentralized exchange structure, which helps to resist DDOS attacks. Huobi has never suffered a large hack.
  3. Huobi Security Reserve of 20000 BTC to compensate users’ loss of funds.
  4. Dedicated, fast and 24/7 customer support.
  5. Regulated in major jurisdictions.
  6. User interface is very smooth and clean.
  7. Over 230 crypto assets are available.
  8. User education program is good initiative.
  9. Separate trading desk for institution and firm size users.
  10. Very transparent about its operations, listings and projects.
  11. Huobi Wallet is secured and very easy to operate.
  12. Huobi mobile app is smooth and very easy to use.
  13. Competitive fees.
  14. Has taken serious steps towards avoiding wash trading.
  15. Impressive array of trading pairs.
  16. Has given more important on community participation, like voting for listing, mining pool, Huobi Knights program etc.
  17. I like Huobi Prime because of following reasons: -
(a) Purchased tokens are immediately deposited into user’s accounts,
(b) As projects launch exclusively through Huobi Prime from day one, all users get assets at the best price.
(c) Tiered price limits on the platform protect both investors and projects from immediate dump.
  1. Huobi screen projects and launches which are only the best. I don’t have to worry about poor or scammy projects.
  2. Burning of HT is a great move and it would benefit long term holders.
Join Huobi by click here: https://www.huobi.com/en-us/topic/invited/?invite_code=7zkb4
Visit
Huobi Global: https://www.huobi.com/en-us/
Join Indian Group: https://t.me/huobiglobalindia
Global telegram Channel: https://t.me/huobiglobalofficial
Join Huobi by click here: https://www.huobi.com/en-us/topic/invited/?invite_code=7zkb4
submitted by VinayTM to HuobiGlobal [link] [comments]

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